Coping with Ethical Uncertainty

Article Sidebar

PDF
Published: Oct 4, 2017
DOI: https://doi.org/10.13153/diam.53.0.1105
Keywords:
uncertainty decision theory probability probability of frequency plausibility plausibilistic expectation utility expected utility Kant

Main Article Content

John R. Welch
Saint Louis University, Department of Philosophy

Abstract

Most ethical decisions are conditioned by formidable uncertainty. Decision makers may lack reliable information about relevant facts, the consequences of actions, and the reactions of other people. Resources for dealing with uncertainty are available from standard forms of decision theory, but successful application to decisions under risk requires a great deal of quantitative information: point-valued probabilities of states and point-valued utilities of outcomes. When this information is not available, this paper recommends the use of a form of decision theory that operates on a bare minimum of information inputs: comparative plausibilities of states and comparative utilities of outcomes. In addition, it proposes a comparative strategy for dealing with second-order uncertainty. The paper illustrates its proposal with reference to a well-known ethical dilemma: Kant’s life-saving lie.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

Article Details

How to Cite
Welch, John R. 2017. “Coping With Ethical Uncertainty”. Diametros, no. 53 (October):150-66. https://doi.org/10.13153/diam.53.0.1105.
Issue
No. 53 (2017)
Section
Ethics and Uncertainty

By submitting his/her work to the Editorial Board, the author accepts, upon having his/her text recommended for publication, that Diametros applies the Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International (CC BY-NC 4.0) license to works we publish. Under this license, authors agree to make articles legally available for reuse, without permission or fees, for any purpose except commercial. Anyone may read, download, copy, print, distribute or reuse these articles without asking prior permission from the publisher or the author, as long as the author and original source are properly cited. The author holds the copyright without any other restrictions. Full information about CC-BY-NC:  https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/legalcode.

Creative Commons License

Author Biography

John R. Welch, Saint Louis University, Department of Philosophy

John R. Welch, PhDSaint Louis University - Madrid CampusDepartment of PhilosophyAvenida del Valle, 3428003 MadridSpain

E-mail: jwelch7@slu.edu

Share |
Crossref
Scopus
Google Scholar
Europe PMC

References

Allen R.J. (1994), “Factual Ambiguity and a Theory of Evidence,” Northwestern University Law Review 88 (2): 604–640.
View in Google Scholar

Allen R.J., Pardo M.S. (2007), “The Problematic Value of Mathematical Models of Evidence,” Journal of Legal Studies 36 (1): 107–140.
View in Google Scholar

Anscombe F.J., Aumann R.J. (1963), “A Definition of Subjective Probability,” The Annals of Mathematical Statistics 34 (1): 199–205.
View in Google Scholar

Aristotle (1984), The Complete Works of Aristotle, J. Barnes (ed.), Princeton University Press, Princeton.
View in Google Scholar

Aven T. (2008), Risk Analysis: Assessing Uncertainties beyond Expected Values and Probabilities, Wiley, Chichester, England and Hoboken (NJ).
View in Google Scholar

Chu F.C., Halpern J.Y. (2004), “Great Expectations. Part II: Generalized Expected Utility as a Universal Decision Rule,” Artificial Intelligence 159 (1–2): 207–229.
View in Google Scholar

Chu F.C., Halpern J.Y. (2008), “Great Expectations. Part I: On the Customizability of Generalized Expected Utility,” Theory and Decision 64 (1): 1–36.
View in Google Scholar

Fishburn P.C. (1991), “Non-transitive Preferences in Decision Theory,” Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 4 (2): 113–134.
View in Google Scholar

Friedman N., Halpern J.Y. (1995), “Plausibility Measures: A User’s Guide,” [in:] Proceedings of the Eleventh Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI ’95): 175–184, URL = https://dslpitt.org/uai/papers/95/p175-friedman.pdf [Accessed 26.8.2017].
View in Google Scholar

Friedman N., Halpern J.Y. (2001), “Plausibility Measures and Default Reasoning,” Journal of the ACM 48 (4): 648–685.
View in Google Scholar

Gilboa I. (2009), Theory of Decision under Uncertainty, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
View in Google Scholar

Gowans C.W. (ed.) (1987), Moral Dilemmas, Oxford University Press, New York.
View in Google Scholar

Greenspan P. (1983), “Moral Dilemmas and Guilt,” Philosophical Studies 43 (1): 117–125.
View in Google Scholar

Halpern J.Y. (2003), Reasoning about Uncertainty, The MIT Press, Cambridge (MA).
View in Google Scholar

Jeffrey C.R. (1965), “Ethics and the Logic of Decision,” The Journal of Philosophy 62 (19): 528–539.
View in Google Scholar

Kant I. (1996), On a Supposed Right to Lie from Philanthropy, trans. M.J. Gregor, [in:] I. Kant, Practical Philosophy, M.J. Gregor (ed.), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge: 605–615.
View in Google Scholar

Kaplan S., Garrick B.J. (1981), “On the Quantitative Definition of Risk,” Risk Analysis 1 (1): 11–27.
View in Google Scholar

Keats J. (2009), “To George and Tom Keats, December 21, 27 (?) December 1817,” [in:] Selected Letters of John Keats: Based on the Texts of Hyder Edward Rollins, rev. ed., G.F. Scott (ed.), Harvard University Press, Cambridge (MA): 59–61.
View in Google Scholar

Klir G.J. (2006), Uncertainty and Information: Foundations of Generalized Information Theory, John Wiley & Sons, Hoboken.
View in Google Scholar

Larmore C. (2008), The Autonomy of Morality, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
View in Google Scholar

Lewis H.W. et al. (1978), Risk Assessment Review Group Report to the U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, NUREG/CR-0400, URL = http://www.iaea.org/inis/collection/
View in Google Scholar

NCLCollectionStore/_Public/10/452/10452296.pdf [Accessed 26.8.2017].
View in Google Scholar

National Research Council (1975), Reactor Safety Study: An Assessment of Accident Risks in U. S. Commercial Nuclear Power Plants, National Academy Press, Washington (DC).
View in Google Scholar

Pardo M.S. (2000), “Juridical Proof, Evidence, and Pragmatic Meaning: Toward Evidentiary Holism,” Northwestern University Law Review 95 (1): 399–442.
View in Google Scholar

Paris J.B. (1994), The Uncertain Reasoner’s Companion: A Mathematical Perspective, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
View in Google Scholar

Peirce C.S. (1986), “The Fixation of Belief,” [in:] Writings of Charles S. Peirce: A Chronological Edition, vol. 3, C.J.W. Kloesel (ed.), Indiana University Press, Bloomington: 242–257.
View in Google Scholar

Pólya G. (1954), Mathematics and Plausible Reasoning, 2 vols., Princeton University Press, Princeton.
View in Google Scholar

Ramsey F.P. (1931), Truth and Probability, [in:] The Foundations of Mathematics and Other Logical Essays, R.B. Braithwaite (ed.), Kegan, Paul, Trench, Trubner & Co., London; and Harcourt, Brace and Company, New York: 156–198.
View in Google Scholar

Rescher N. (1976), Plausible Reasoning: An Introduction to the Theory and Practice of Plausibilistic Inference, Van Gorcum, Assen/Amsterdam.
View in Google Scholar

Rott H. (2003), “Basic Entrenchment,” Studia Logica 73 (2): 257–280.
View in Google Scholar

Rott H. (2014), “Two Concepts of Plausibility in Default Reasoning,” Erkenntnis 79 (6): 1219–1252.
View in Google Scholar

Savage L.J. (1971), “Elicitation of Personal Probabilities and Expectations,” Journal of the American Statistical Association 66 (336): 783–801.
View in Google Scholar

Shafer G. (1987), Belief Functions and Possibility Measures, [in:] Analysis of Fuzzy Information, vol. I, J.C. Bezdek (ed.), CRC Press, Boca Raton: 51–84.
View in Google Scholar

Shrader-Frechette K. (1991), Risk and Rationality: Philosophical Foundations for Populist Reforms, University of California Press, Berkeley.
View in Google Scholar

Van Horn K.S. (2003), “Constructing a Logic of Plausible Inference: A Guide to Cox’s Theorem,” International Journal of Approximate Reasoning 23 (1): 3–24.
View in Google Scholar

Walton D. (2001), “Abductive, Presumptive and Plausible Arguments,” Informal Logic 21 (2): 141–169.
View in Google Scholar

Walton D. (2004), Abductive Reasoning, University of Alabama Press, Tuscaloosa (AL).
View in Google Scholar

Welch J.R. (2007), “Vagueness and Inductive Molding,” Synthese 154 (1): 147–172.
View in Google Scholar

Welch J.R. (2011), “Decision Theory and Cognitive Choice,” European Journal for Philosophy of Science 1 (2): 147–172.
View in Google Scholar

Welch J.R. (2012), “Real-Life Decisions and Decision Theory,” [in:] Handbook of Risk Theory, S. Roeser, R. Hillerbrand, P. Sandin, M. Peterson (eds), Springer, Dordrecht: 545–573.
View in Google Scholar

Welch J.R. (2013), “New Tools for Theory Choice and Theory Diagnosis,” Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A 44 (3): 318–329.
View in Google Scholar

Welch J.R. (2014), Moral Strata: Another Approach to Reflective Equilibrium, Springer, Cham.
View in Google Scholar

Zimmerman M.J. (1996), The Concept of Moral Obligation, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
View in Google Scholar