Uncertainty and Probability within Utilitarian Theory
Main Article Content
Abstract
Probability is a central concept in utilitarian moral theory, almost impossible to do without. I attempt to clarify the role of probability, so that we can be clear about what we are aiming for when we apply utilitarian theory to real cases. I point out the close relationship between utilitarianism and expected-utility theory, a normative standard for individual decision-making. I then argue that the distinction between “ambiguity” and risk is a matter of perception. We do not need this distinction in the theory itself. In order to make this argument I rely on the personalist theory of probability, and I try to show that, within this theory, we do not need to give up completely on the idea that a “true probability” (other than 0 or 1) exists. Finally, I discuss several examples of applied utilitarianism, emphasizing the role of probability in each example: reasonable doubt (in law), the precautionary principle in risk regulation, charity, climate change, and voting.
Downloads
Article Details
By submitting his/her work to the Editorial Board, the author accepts, upon having his/her text recommended for publication, that Diametros applies the Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) license to the works we publish. Under this license, authors agree to make articles legally available for reuse, without permission or fees. Anyone may read, download, copy, print, distribute or reuse these articles without asking prior permission from the publisher or the author, as long as the author and original source are properly cited. The author holds the copyright without any other restrictions. Full information about CC-BY: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode.
References
Baron J. (1993), Morality and Rational Choice, Kluwer, Dordrecht.
View in Google Scholar
Baron J. (1996), “Norm-Endorsement Utilitarianism and the Nature of Utility,” Economics and Philosophy 12 (2): 165–182.
View in Google Scholar
Baron J. (2004), “Normative Models of Judgment and Decision Making,” [in:] Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making, D.J. Koehler, N. Harvey (eds), Blackwell, London: 19–36.
View in Google Scholar
Baron J. (2006), Against Bioethics, MIT Press, Cambridge (MA).
View in Google Scholar
Baron J. (2008), Thinking and Deciding (4th edition), Cambridge University Press, New York.
View in Google Scholar
Baron J. (2012), “The ‘Culture of Honor’ in Citizens’ Concepts of their Duty as Voters,” Rationality and Society 24 (1): 37–72.
View in Google Scholar
Baron J., Frisch D. (1994), “Ambiguous Probabilities and the Paradoxes of Expected Utility,” [in:] Subjective Probability, G. Wright, P. Ayton (eds), Wiley, Chichester (Sussex): 273–294.
View in Google Scholar
Baron J., Mellers B.A., Tetlock P.E., Stone E., Ungar L.H. (2014), “Two Reasons to Make Aggregated Probability Forecasts More Extreme,” Decision Analysis 11 (2): 133–145.
View in Google Scholar
Baron J., Ritov I. (2009), “The Role of Probability of Detection in Judgments of Punishment,” Journal of Legal Analysis 1 (2): 553–590.
View in Google Scholar
Baron J., Szymanska E. (2010), “Heuristics and Biases in Charity,” [in:] The Science of Giving: Experimental Approaches to the Study of Charity, D. Oppenheimer, C. Olivola (eds), Taylor and Francis, New York: 215–236.
View in Google Scholar
Bazerman M.H., Baron J., Shonk K. (2001), You Can’t Enlarge the Pie: The Psychology of Ineffective Government, Basic Books, New York.
View in Google Scholar
Bentham J. (1843/1948), An Introduction to the Principles of Morals and Legislation, Blackwell Publisher, Oxford.
View in Google Scholar
Brown R.V. (1993), “Impersonal Probability as an Ideal Assessment Based on Accessible Evidence: A Viable and Practical Construct?” Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 7 (2): 215–235.
View in Google Scholar
DeKay M.L. (1996), “The Difference Between Blackstone-Like Error Ratios and Probabilistic Standards of Proof,” Law and Social Inquiry 21 (1): 95–132.
View in Google Scholar
Downs A. (1957), An Economic Theory of Democracy, Harper and Row, New York.
View in Google Scholar
Edlin A., Gelman A., Kaplan N. (2007), “Voting as a Rational Choice: Why and how People Vote to Improve the Well-being of Others,” Rationality and Society 19 (3): 293–314.
View in Google Scholar
Edlin A., Gelman A., Kaplan N. (2008), “Vote for Charity’s Sake,” The Economists’ Voice 5 (6).
View in Google Scholar
Ellsberg D. (1961), “Risk, Ambiguity, and the Savage Axioms,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 75 (4): 643–699.
View in Google Scholar
Fox C.R. Ülkümen G. (2011), “Distinguishing Two Dimensions of Uncertainty,” [in:] Perspectives on Thinking, Judging, and Decision Making, W. Brun, G. Keren, G. Kirkebøen, H. Montgomery (eds), Universitetsforlaget, Oslo.
View in Google Scholar
Hare R.M. (1963), Freedom and Reason, Oxford University Press (Clarendon Press), Oxford.
View in Google Scholar
Hare R.M. (1981), Moral Thinking: Its Levels, Method and Point, Oxford University Press (Clarendon Press), Oxford.
View in Google Scholar
Kaplow, L., Shavell S. (2002), Fairness versus Welfare, Harvard University Press, Cambridge (MA).
View in Google Scholar
Kaplow L., Shavell S. (2004), “Any Non-Welfarist Method of Policy Assessment Violates the Pareto Principle: Reply,” Journal of Political Economy 112 (1): 249–251.
View in Google Scholar
Kunreuther H., Hogarth R., Meszaros J. (1993), “Insurer Ambiguity and Market Failure,” Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 7 (1): 71–87.
View in Google Scholar
Lindley D.V., Tversky A., Brown R.V. (1979), “On the Reconciliation of Probability Assessments” (with commentary), Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A 142 (2): 146–180.
View in Google Scholar
Mill J.S. (1859), On Liberty, J.W. Parker & Son, London.
View in Google Scholar
Ritov I., Baron J. (1990), “Reluctance to Vaccinate: Omission Bias and Ambiguity,” Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 3 (4): 263–277.
View in Google Scholar
Savage L.J. (1954), The Foundations of Statistics, Wiley, New York.
View in Google Scholar
Sunstein C.R. (2007), Worst-Case Scenarios, Harvard University Press, Cambridge (MA).
View in Google Scholar
Tetlock P.E., Mellers B.A., Scoblic J.P. (2017), “Bringing Probability Judgments into Policy Debates via Forecasting Tournaments,” Science 355 (6324): 481–483.
View in Google Scholar